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I constantly hear tea party activists make matter-of-fact claims that Obama will lose in November. I constantly ask those individuals to use caution when making such statements. For the record, I believe Barack Obama still holds the upper hand in November and I think he’s going to be very tough to defeat. It’s not impossible, but it’s not a given. Not by any stretch.
And before you comment this is the GOP’s fault for giving us Mitt Romney, let me say I think this would have been the case no matter who we have as a candidate. I was a Herman Cain guy, but even if my pick had won we would be facing a big uphill fight. Defeating incumbents is always extraordinarily hard to do, especially when it’s someone who has convinced half the country to like him, even when he isn’t doing a good job.
I take a very cautiously optimistic approach. My outlook on the POTUS general election is one more filled with unknown outcomes. This is why we have so many toss-up states listed on our tracking site at VoterTeaParty.com. See the map below.
Our map is much different than that of Karl Rove.
Rove bases his map on actual polling and voter ID data. Which is what makes it somewhat frightening. I find it interesting that Rove places Ohio in the lean Obama column. This is certainly possible and I would have to agree that Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are likely to slightly favor Obama at this point. I wonder, however, that if you’re to turn toss-ups like Ohio into a slightly favor state for Obama, why would you not do the same for Iowa and the Carolina’s for Romney? I’ve seen some data in those states that suggest Obama will have a next to impossible time grabbing their electoral votes this time around.
Either way, Rove’s map should have us all wide awake. It’s a harsh reminder that this thing is leaning against us and we’ve got a lot of work to do if we want to remove Obama from office in November.
P.S. If I had to make a prediction map today, this would be it.
Obama – 280
Romney – 258